Welcome to Decouple, the best source for cutting-edge analysis on nuclear energy, with weekly expert interviews by Chris Keefer. Watch on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple. See testimonials, Read on for a summary of this week’s special episode, a debate between two bright minds in nuclear energy. Happy Holidays!
Two thought leaders in the nuclear energy conversation, James Krellenstein and Ted Nordhaus, join Decouple for a “debate” over the question of reactor size: should advanced, small nuclear technologies lead the way for nuclear energy, or should conventional large reactors? What could have been a heated debate over nuclear energy's future resulted in a nuanced discussion about the industry’s challenges—and how to overcome them.
James Krellenstein is the co-founder and CEO of Alva Energy. Ted Nordhaus is the co-founder and executive director of The Breakthrough Institute
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In a nutshell
Krellenstein and Nordhaus wade into the institutional, financial, and technical challenges facing both large conventional reactors and advanced nuclear technologies. Despite differing overall conclusions regarding the best path forward, the two found significant common ground.
We talk about
Institutional and financing challenges for nuclear deployment
Advantages and drawbacks of conventional vs. advanced reactor designs
Role of private sector and government in nuclear development
Market dynamics and power purchase agreements
Technical reliability and operational experience as factors in investment decisions
Sometimes the way that you solve a political, policy, and financing problem is through engineering.
– Ted Nordhaus, Co-Founder and Executive Director of The Breakthrough Institute
Some takeaways
Both large conventional reactors and advanced designs face significant but different deployment challenges. Large nuclear technologies like the AP-1000 bring higher upfront costs but carry little technology risk, whereas the lower total cost of smaller designs could be offset by the almost-certain operational challenges that immature designs will face.
Krellenstein and Nordhaus disagree about the extent to which deregulated merchant power markets can or will support investment in new nuclear capacity
Recent deals with credit-worthy tech companies represent a potential new model for nuclear financing
Policy support remains crucial regardless of reactor type chosen
“A Power Purchase Agreement is dependent on your ability to make the power… For a bond-holder, when you start diligencing the track record of a novel reactor technology, that is going to be a really hard sell.” – James Krellenstein, Co-Founder and CEO of Alva Energy
Deeper Dive
The conversation revealed a sophisticated understanding of the institutional barriers facing nuclear deployment in the United States. Nordhaus emphasized that unlike other countries where nuclear fleets are built by vertically integrated national utilities, the U.S. has over 2,000 utilities with 70% of electricity demand served by liberalized markets. This fragmentation creates unique challenges for financing and deploying large nuclear projects.
Recent deals between nuclear vendors and tech companies like Google and Amazon highlighted an emerging model for nuclear project development. These arrangements, involving power purchase agreements with creditworthy off-takers, represent a potential path forward for both conventional and advanced nuclear technologies, though questions remain about long-term viability.
A key technical point in the question of preferred nuclear technologies is operational experience and reliability. While conventional light water reactors took decades to achieve their current 90%+ capacity factors, advanced reactor designs face similar challenges in proving their reliability. This creates a "valley of death" where early units must demonstrate sufficient performance to justify continued investment.
According to Nordhaus, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's current structure may not be well-suited for either large fleet deployment or innovative reactor designs. Kairos Power's strategy of building a demonstration reactor before commercial deployment was cited as a thoughtful approach to navigating these challenges.
Krellenstein and Nordhaus also explore the historical context of nuclear development. Krellenstein notes how previous attempts at advanced reactor designs like the Fort Saint Vrain high-temperature gas reactor and various sodium-cooled fast reactors faced significant operational challenges.
Keywords
nuclear energy, advanced reactors, small modular reactors, AP1000, nuclear regulation, power purchase agreements, nuclear financing, tech companies, nuclear policy, reactor deployment, nuclear infrastructure, energy markets, nuclear innovation, nuclear reliability, breakthrough institute
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