Welcome back to Decouple, the best source for cutting-edge analysis on nuclear energy, with weekly interviews by Chris Keefer. Watch on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple.
This week, we go to China. I spoke with David Fishman, senior manager at The Lantau Group, on the motivations and strategy behind China’s world-leading electrification efforts. What seems like a climate-action utopia to Western analysts appears to be a pragmatic response to pollution and energy security concerns. China's vulnerability to maritime oil blockades has spurred aggressive electrification across transport, industry, and urban infrastructure; and its state capitalist model has enabled a pace and scale of investment in nuclear power, electrified transport, and renewable energy that makes Western efforts to achieve an energy transformation look piecemeal.
Watch now on YouTube.
Takeaways
China's push for electrification is driven by a mix of pollution, climate, and energy security concerns, particularly owing to its dependence on oil imports through vulnerable maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca
The Chinese approach to EV adoption focuses pragmatically on high-mileage fleet vehicles and making EVs a practical mass-market choice rather than luxury items
State capitalism enabled massive industrial policy initiatives that have dramatically reduced costs for solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines through fierce domestic competition
China's nuclear program demonstrates how state backing can build efficient supply chains and construction expertise through steady, long-term deployment. In contrast, a financialized paradigm in Western nations has created tall barriers to deploying large-scale infrastructure.
Rooftop solar deployment follows a systematic county-by-county approach in China rather than the scattered individual adoption seen in the West
Grid integration challenges are emerging as renewable deployment outpaces transmission infrastructure
The contrast between quiet, electrified Chinese cities and noisy Western ones highlights the tangible results of different approaches to energy transition
We're talking about quality of life for people, not just the industrial economy, and all of that being tied up on a supply chain that is potentially vulnerable. If you can stack all your exposure into electricity instead, and that electricity is generated from domestic resources, then you've reduced that vulnerability. – David Fishman
Deeper Dive
When Western climate analysts look toward China, in some sense they see the future, where fantasies of large-scale renewables deployment and EV adoption are playing out. But far more than climate considerations, the geopolitics of oil dependence are shaping China's energy future. With 80% of its oil imports flowing through the narrow Strait of Malacca, China faces an existential vulnerability. This maritime chokepoint, flanked by Indonesia and Malaysia, could easily be blockaded in a conflict. The ring of U.S.-aligned nations and military bases encircling China's eastern seaboard only heightens these anxieties.
This strategic context helps explain why China pursues electrification with such systematic determination. Rather than the piecemeal approach seen in the West, where EV adoption often means wealthy households buying second or third cars, China targets high-impact applications first. Electric buses, delivery vehicles, and taxis lead the way. The goal isn't virtue signaling but replacing oil consumption where it matters most.
[China went] from being almost a non-factor five years ago to suddenly being the largest producer, the largest exporter of EVs. Suddenly it's not a niche choice to buy an electric vehicle. It's just the most reasonable, sensible thing. – David Fishman
The raw numbers tell a striking story. China's electricity consumption continues climbing across all sectors—heavy industry, commercial services, and residential. Yet per capita usage remains only at the level of Germany or Japan, suggesting massive headroom for growth. This growth comes increasingly from domestic energy sources, as China leverages its abundant coal, nuclear capacity, and renewable resources to reduce foreign energy dependence
State capitalism proves remarkably effective at driving this transition. Take nuclear power: through steady deployment and localization requirements, China built entire supply chains from scratch. What began with importing 93% of components now sees multiple domestic suppliers competing for each major component. Construction teams gain expertise through repetition, with some having built ten reactors in five years. The result? New reactors consistently completed in 5-7 years at a fraction of Western costs.
The solar industry followed a similar path. When trade restrictions threatened China's access to polysilicon, the state mobilized to build domestic production in just three years. Today, fierce competition between state-backed companies drives costs ever lower. The same pattern appears in batteries and wind turbines — state support creates the industry, then internal competition drives innovation and cost reduction.
Even rooftop solar deployment reflects this systematic approach. Rather than letting developers cherry-pick the most profitable sites, China's "whole county" program requires comprehensive coverage: 50% of government buildings, 30% of commercial properties, and 20% of homes. According to Fishman, this has not only created predictable markets and ensured broad adoption, but it prompted the creation of numerous local businesses to fulfill the demands created by policy.
When China does industrial policy, the money flows rapidly and directly to where it needs to be. —David Fishman
In Shanghai, where 50% of the new cars on the road are electric vehicles, Fishman says you can hear the difference.
When I go back to my hometown in the U.S., I feel nothing ever changes. It’s the same little town, same little restaurant. The same people having the same lives. Now, I go, ‘Oh, the same petroleum vehicles having their same, loud revving noises.’ It feels old. It feels static, and the new dynamic in China is quiet.
Join me for the full interview (71 minutes):
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
04:00 Maritime chokepoints and energy security
08:30 Electrification across economic sectors
15:45 EV adoption and infrastructure
23:30 Nuclear power development
31:15 Solar industry evolution
39:00 Competition in renewable manufacturing
45:20 Rooftop solar deployment strategy
52:40 Grid integration challenges
58:15 Future energy mix projections
Keywords
China energy security, Strait of Malacca, state capitalism, electric vehicles, EV adoption, nuclear, supply chain localization, solar manufacturing, urban electrification, grid integration
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