The Energy Transition Will Not Happen

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Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, a French historian of science and technology, challenges our understanding of energy history. In this episode, he unravels the myth of energy transitions, revealing the symbiotic relationships between coal, wood, and oil that have shaped our world in unexpected ways.

About the guest

Jean-Baptiste Fressoz is a historian at the French National Centre for Scientific Research and the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences, two of the most prestigious research and educational institutions in France. He is author of several books, including More and More and More: An All-Consuming History of Energy, which serves as the basis for this interview.

In a nutshell

Coal did not replace wood, and oil did not save the whales. Fressoz challenges the popular narrative of energy transitions, arguing instead for a model of energy symbiosis throughout history. He contends that the concept of energy transition is a recent invention, rooted in the futurism that bloomed at the outset of the atomic age, and that it provides an unrealistic framework for addressing climate change.

We talk about

• The myth of energy transitions and the reality of energy symbiosis

• The historical interdependence of different energy sources (coal, wood, oil, etc.)

• The origins and implications of the "energy transition" concept

• The limitations of current climate change mitigation strategies

• The need for a more nuanced understanding of energy history and future planning

Notable Quotes

"Instead of having a story of transition, we have a story of symbiotic expansion of energies." - Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

"We cannot tell the story of the 20th century as a transition from oil to coal. It doesn't work at all." - Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

In a picture

One revealing graphic from More and More and More illustrates the shift in the late 20th century from the use of absolute to relative terms when discussing energy mixes, aiding in the illusion of “energy transitions.”

Quoted from More and More and More: “Two ways of representing the US energy mix: in absolute terms on the left, and in relative terms on the right. The second method appeared in the mid-1970s, first in the energy forecasting field and then in the US administration after the 1973 oil crisis. It was also at this time that a new body of expertise focused on transition was born. (Energy Information Administration, ‘Annual Report to Congress’, 1978, p.2 and Executive Office of the President, National Energy Plan, 1977 (Cambridge, MA, 1978).)”

Deeper Dive

Fressoz provides several examples to illustrate the symbiotic relationship between different energy sources throughout history. For instance, he notes that Britain used 4.5 million cubic meters of pit props (wooden supports) for coal mining in the early 20th century, compared to 3.6 million cubic meters of firewood burned in the 18th century. This demonstrates that the coal industry, far from replacing wood, actually increased wood consumption.

He also highlights the interdependence of oil and coal industries, pointing out that in the 1930s, building a Ford car required seven tons of coal, which in terms of weight was more than the oil the car would burn across its lifetime. Similarly, he mentions that in the interwar period, for each ton of oil burned in Britain, 2.5 tons of coal were needed to build the associated infrastructure.

Fressoz traces the origin of the "energy transition" concept to atomic scientists in the mid-20th century. These scientists envisioned a long-term shift to nuclear energy over centuries, a timeframe that has been inappropriately compressed in current climate change discussions.

He also discusses a 1983 EPA report which suggested that even with drastic measures like a 300% tax on coal, the delay in reaching a 2-degree Celsius temperature rise would only be about 10-15 years. This underscores the limitations of current mitigation strategies and the need for more focus on adaptation.

References

• "Sans transition, Une nouvelle histoire de l'énergie" by Jean-Baptiste Fressoz

• "More and More and More: An All-Consuming History of Energy" (English version of Fressoz's book)

• "The Shock of the Old" by David Edgerton

• Reports by the International Energy Agency (IEA)

• IPCC reports, particularly by Working Group III

• William Nordhaus

• Richard Rhodes

• Vaclav Smil

• Cesare Marchetti's energy models and curves

Timestamps

• 00:00 Intro

• 01:08 Book: More and More and More

• 04:16 Energy symbiosis

• 07:51 The symbiosis of wood and coal

• 12:20 Of coal and oil

• 22:15 Of wood and oil

• 26:06 Are we burning more wood than ever?

• 28:33 Drax Power Plant

• 35:33 Raw materials never go out of fashion

• 37:31 Oil didn't save the whales

• 41:09 The atomic origins of "energy transition"

• 49:51 Hydropower hope

• 53:01 Utopianism

• 1:00:23 Climbing down the energy ladder

• 1:06:33 Too little too late: the need for climate adaptation

• 1:16:46 Book publication date

Keywords

energy transition, energy symbiosis, fossil fuels, climate change, energy history, coal, oil, nuclear energy, adaptation, sufficiency, energy modeling, IPCC, renewable energy, carbon emissions, energy policy